It’s not just about prestige and making history for Denmark with the Fehmarn project. It’s also a highly lucrative business, providing tracks, signals, electricity, and, most importantly, the tunnel for international freight trains traveling between Sweden and Germany.
Rail freight only becomes economically viable when goods are transported over distances greater than 300 kilometers. Otherwise, the cost of transloading goods onto trucks for the first and last short legs of the journey outweighs the savings of the train ride. Therefore, the vast majority of goods transported on Danish railways are pure transit traffic, either heading to Sweden or Germany.
The international operators running these large freight trains pay a fee per kilometer traveled on Banedanmark’s tracks. They also pay an additional fee for crossing the Øresund or Great Belt connections. Furthermore, they pay for the electricity they use. And these are not small sums.
The new Fehmarn Tunnel, expected to become a vital transport corridor between Scandinavia and Europe, depends on the adjacent railway connections on the German side being completed on time. If not, Denmark risks losing millions in annual revenues, while the environmental burden from the transport sector could increase significantly.
Profitable transit freight trains
In 2021, the toll for the Great Belt Bridge was DKK 6,860.56 for a freight train, and a freight train crossing the Danish part of the Øresund connection costs DKK 2,807.11. This is stated in the Infrastructure Charges, etc., for the State Railway Network from November 2021.
If we assume that the pricing for the Fehmarn Tunnel will follow the same structure as Sund & Bælt’s other bridges and tunnels, it’s not far-fetched to estimate that freight trains passing through the Fehmarn Tunnel will pay around DKK 7,500 per trip.
The tunnel could earn DKK 100 million from freight trains
It is expected that up to 40 freight trains will pass through the tunnel daily, generating potential annual revenue of over DKK 100 million from freight trains alone.
In addition, Banedanmark collects a significant amount from the train kilometer fee. On Danish railway lines, there is a charge of DKK 5.19 per kilometer traveled.
With 40 daily freight trains expected through the Fehmarn Tunnel, Denmark could potentially lose an additional DKK 151 million annually in train kilometer fees if this transport is shifted to trucks.
A loss of a quarter billion Kroner
In total, Denmark could face an annual economic loss of over DKK 250 million if delays on the German side make rail freight through Denmark unprofitable.
Trucks emit four times more CO2
Beyond the economic impact, delays could also have significant climate consequences. A freight train can typically transport the same amount of goods as 52 trucks, making trains a much more environmentally friendly option. Rail transport emits significantly less CO2 per ton-kilometer compared to trucks, and as such, the railway plays a central role in Europe’s green transition.
Transporting one ton of goods by rail emits an average of 15-25 grams of CO2 per kilometer, while a diesel-powered truck emits 60-150 grams for the same distance and weight.
The difference becomes clearer on a larger scale. In 2022, 13.6 billion tons of goods were transported on EU roads. If these goods were transported an average of 300 kilometers, trucks would emit around 429,000 tons of CO2. In comparison, all of Denmark emitted around 44,000 tons of CO2 in 2022.
If the same goods were transported by rail, the CO2 emissions would only be 81,600 tons, a reduction of about 347,000 tons of CO2 or around 81%.
Trucks could save time and hassle
If freight traffic is shifted to trucks due to missing German railway connections, it would lead to a significant increase in CO2 emissions. It would also place greater strain on European road networks, leading to higher maintenance costs and more traffic-related problems. This scenario is not entirely unlikely if a convenient and available tunnel solution saves time and hassle compared to the railway.
The Fehmarnsund Bridge is too old and small
One of the major challenges for freight traffic is the existing Fehmarnsund Bridge, opened in 1963, which is outdated and lacks the capacity to handle modern freight trains. It is simply too small and fragile for the large amounts of freight expected to pass through the Fehmarn Tunnel.
Deutsche Bahn must therefore build a new immersed tunnel under the Fehmarnsund before there is capacity for two large freight trains per hour. The problem is that this work has not yet started, and it risks being delayed until 2033 or 2034—long after the Fehmarn Tunnel is expected to open in 2029.
Deutsche Bahn, which is responsible for the German hinterland connection, including the Fehmarnsund Tunnel, maintains that they will be ready at the same time as the Danish projects—scheduled for 2029. Danish politicians are skeptical, and the Danish government has begun increasing pressure on the Germans to get the work underway.
Extended repayment period
The Fehmarn Tunnel is largely financed by loans, and repayment depends on the revenue generated from the tunnel. If the German hinterland is not completed on time, fewer trains will use the tunnel, resulting in lower revenues to repay the loans. This could significantly extend the repayment period.
