The Swedish infrastructure authority, Trafikverket, is investigating the possibilities of establishing an extra fixed connection across the Øresund. The Øresund Bridge Consortium expects freight traffic across the Øresund to triple when the Fehmarn connection opens in 2029. This is confirmed, among other things, by the Swedish steel producer SSAB, which today sends around 6,600 freight wagons from Sweden to the continent via the rail ferry from Trelleborg. That traffic will be sent through Denmark when the Fehmarn connection opens, and that will make the Øresund connection a bottleneck on the route.
The Trafikverket operates in its studies with three options: An extension of the Copenhagen metro with a line to Malmö, a fixed connection between Helsingør and Helsingborg and a submerged tunnel from Landskrona to Copenhagen.
You cannot transport steel in the metro
At least initially, we can disregard the metro line. You cannot transport half a million tonnes of Swedish steel by subway. So even though further integration in the Øresund region on many other levels could benefit the economy both in southern Sweden and the Greater Copenhagen area, that proposal does not solve the problem.
No space on the Coastline
There has been talk of a fixed connection with Helsingør and Helsingborg for almost as long as we have been talking about a Great Belt connection, and as a construction project it will in many ways be the easiest and cheapest to realize due to the short distance. The problem here is that the connecting infrastructure – especially on the Danish side – is not at all in place for a massively increased traffic volume. Today, the coastal line from Helsingør to Copenhagen is used almost exclusively for passenger trains, and the line is already at capacity.
It is difficult to imagine where one would have to find space to expand the rail network on the stretch, even if there were the political will for it. The alternative is to establish a clean road connection, but this does not solve the problem of freight transport unless the goods have to be loaded onto trucks, and this goes against all ambitions from both the EU and the national governments.
Landskrona-Copenhagen most realistic
What remains is the submersion tunnel from Landskrona to Copenhagen. According to Europaspåret, it will be possible to realize it at approximately the same price as the Fehmarn Tunnel. The project has a lot in common with the Fehmarn project. The tunnel will be one kilometer longer than the Fehmarn Tunnel – in return, it will be possible to save the cost of establishing an element factory, as it is already within a distance in Rødbyhavn that makes it possible to sail the elements to their destination.
Around or under Copenhagen
However, the calculation looks somewhat optimistic. Not least because a route must also be established outside or under Copenhagen. An additional Øresund connection and the additional traffic it will entail will also create a need for a new station in Greater Copenhagen, because Copenhagen Central Station is already pushed to the capacity limit.
Sweden has to go to the pockets
The financing is also far from in place. Sweden proposes a user-financed model along the lines of the one on the Øresund. But unlike the Fehmarn connection and the first Øresund connection, it is not likely that Denmark will invest tax dollars in the project. When Denmark’s Minister of Transport, Thomas Danielsen (V), says that he is open to Swedish proposals for both technology and financing, it is a diplomatic way of saying to the Swedes that if they want a new Øresund connection, they have to do it themselves build and pay for it. This also applies to the connecting facilities on the Danish side.
Transit through Denmark
Denmark does not immediately have much to gain from a new fixed connection across the Øresund. Ten trains per hour are expected on the Ringsted-Femern section when the tunnel opens. By far the majority will be pure transit traffic between Sweden/Norway and the continent, it will not affect Zealand and Lolland-Falster much.
Who will build it?
Finally, there is the problem of qualified, skilled labour. It will be difficult enough to get the employees who will implement the Danish Infrastructure Plan 2035 at the same time that the green transition and continued district heating rollout must be realized.
You should never say never, and it is certainly too early to definitively sweep an additional Øresund connection off the table. But it is unlikely to be realized within the next 25 years – unless there is an unusually generous offer from Sweden.
