It has cost around six billion kroner to build, and it will cost around one billion to tear it down again. These are in themselves two pretty good arguments for the fact that the Norwegian Parliament will adopt an amendment to the Construction Act for the Fehmarn Tunnel before Christmas, so that the element factory in Rødbyhavn can remain after the tunnel is completed in 2029. And there is also broad political agreement that the factory must be preserved.
48,000 square meters under roof for one purpose
In practice, there is 48,000 square meters of factory under roof. The factory was designed and built for one purpose: to cast the 89 concrete elements that the Fehmarn Tunnel must be assembled from. So it is obvious to look for the customers for the element factory in similar projects, which can then save the inconvenience of having to build a element factory yourself. In the case of the Fehmarn project, the element factory accounts for ten percent of the total cost, so this is a fairly significant gain.
Landskrona-Copenhagen and Als-Fyn
Sund & Bælt has already initiated feasibility studies into the possibility of a fixed connection across the Kattegat and a fixed connection between Als and Funen. However, the Kattegat connection has so far been pushed to the corner from the political side, and the first feasibility studies of the Als-Fyn connection have shown problematic seabed conditions and potential problems for ship traffic that could make the project difficult to realize.
In Sweden, among others, Europaspåret, with Landskrona Municipality in the lead, is lobbying for a fixed connection between Landskrona and Copenhagen to supplement the existing Øresund connection. However, there is far from political agreement on the timing of the project in Sweden, and it is more than usual doubtful whether the Danish state will throw money at a project that primarily caters to Swedish industrial interests.
Long views
There is thus a considerable amount of uncertainty about specific bridge and tunnel projects within reasonable sailing distance to Rødbyhavn, and even if the projects end up being realized, it has long prospects. On the one hand, there is the political and legal process, which can take several years, and then comes the entire tendering and design phase, which can also be a few years in the making. It is therefore not terribly likely that they will be customers in the shop of an element factory this side of 2030.
Energy islands and offshore wind
However, it is not only tunnels and bridges that must use concrete elements in giga size. The plans for energy islands and giant offshore wind farms in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea will also be able to throw off orders for an element factory. The foundations for the gigantic offshore wind turbines that are currently on the drawing board are so large that it will be difficult to find space for just one in the City Hall Square in Copenhagen.
The Kieler canal is too small
This, in turn, creates some uncertainty as to whether it is sustainable and technically possible to cast these giant structures in Rødbyhavn and sail them to their final location in the North Sea. The size of the foundations means that they would have to travel north of Jutland, as the Kiel Canal is not at all designed for transport of that size. For offshore wind projects in the Baltic Sea, however, the location in Rødbyhavn seems to fit perfectly.
Research and development
However, the element factory will also be able to be used for other and more than just production. The construction industry is slowly realizing that there is a great demand for more sustainable projects. A large precast factory will also have great value as a research and development environment for more sustainable concrete constructions and building technologies.
Who can and will?
What remains is the question of who will own and operate the factory in Rødbyhavn. At the first reading of the bill in the Folketing on Thursday, it was clear that the Danish state is not going to become the future supplier of giant concrete elements. That task must be left to private, commercial players. On the liberal side, there is a pronounced desire to simply sell the element factory to the highest bidder, but it is doubtful whether a majority can be gathered for that idea.
Sund & Bælt has previously announced that they envisage a concession model where the state owns the production facility and enters into a long-term concession or service contract with an operating operator for, for example, 25 years at a time. The operating operator then undertakes to supply elements for state projects such as those mentioned before, while the capacity can then be used for other purposes when there are no state projects in progress.
Requires a lot of money and a lot of know-how
However, there are not many who will be able to take on the task of operating operator at such an element factory. Firstly, it requires unusually good financial padding to “rent” a production plant worth six billion kroner. In addition, the possible projects for which the factory must supply elements will be of such a large scale that it will also require many billions at the bottom of the coffin to even be pre-qualified to participate in the tenders. In addition, there is the technical know-how and the engineering skills needed to solve these kinds of tasks.
The most obvious operating operators at the element factory are thus large, multinational construction groups, such as those we already know from the Fehmarn project, Storstrømsbroen and the Copenhagen metro.
Vinci knows the factory
It is already today the FLC consortium (Femern Link Contractors) that owns the tunnel factory. It is the French contractor giant Vinci that is clearly the biggest player in FLC. They thus already know the factory and the market, and Vinci already has plenty of experience with concession agreements. Thus, Vinci already both builds and operates motorways and airports in its home country of France and could easily be responsible for the operation of a precast factory in Lolland as well.
Itinera has the experience
Italian Itinera also has experience with the construction and operation of large infrastructure projects in Italy, such as motorways and bridges. However, the Danish enthusiasm for Itinera may currently lie in a very small place. It is also Itinera, which is the main player in the SBJV consortium (Storstrømsbro Joint Venture), which is responsible for the construction of the Storstrømsbroen, which has already been hit hard by budget overruns and delays. Still, it is too early to write Itinera out of the equation – for the right price, there is political will to forgive a lot.
Cobra already in the North Sea
The Spanish Cobra group also already belongs to the inner circle of the Fehmarn project. Here, as the driving force in the FSC consortium, they must be responsible for all the technical innards in the Fehmarn tunnel. Cobra is already involved in large offshore wind projects in the North Sea and could benefit from being able to provide the foundations itself.
According to the transport minister’s timetable, the decision to preserve the element factory will be made in December this year. Then comes the work of finding an operating operator – and some customers.
