After several years of uncertainty, there is finally a prospect of progress on the German side of the Fehmarn Belt connection. Deutsche Bahn has announced that the construction of the necessary tunnel under Fehmarnsund - the connection between the island of Fehmarn and the German mainland - can begin in 2026. This is the first time there is a concrete plan for when freight trains can continue towards Hamburg and the rest of Europe.
Fehmarn Belt and Fehmarnsund are often mentioned in the same breath, but they cover two different parts of the connection. Fehmarn Belt is the actual tunnel under the sea, from Rødby to the island of Fehmarn. But the connection does not stop there. To proceed further into Germany, the traffic must also cross Fehmarnsund - and this is where the entire project risks running into major delays.
The new German plan suggests that the construction of a tunnel under Fehmarnsund can begin in the summer of 2026 - provided that the planning process proceeds as hoped. Deutsche Bahn will use a so-called alliance model, where contractors and the client work closely together already in the design phase to avoid bottlenecks along the way.
Sluggishness on the German side
Already in May and June this year, the first public hearings will be held, which are to pave the way for authority approvals. The ambition is for the Fehmarnsund tunnel to be ready simultaneously with the Fehmarn Belt connection in 2029. But the schedule is tight - and the uncertainty is great.
- There has long been a lack of progress on the German side, but recent pressure from key players in the project has made things move. The situation was untenable, and everyone could see that. Now there is at least increased awareness, and that is a step forward, says Prof. Dr. Jan Ninnemann, professor of transport economics at Hamburg School of Business Administration and director of the consultancy MOVE4WARD Innovative Transport Solutions.
Jan Ninnemann has in a number of analyses - most recently in a report from 2024 - assessed the socio-economic consequences of delays on the German part of the Femern project and calculated what it means for freight, passenger, and climate targets.
Does the new plan mean that the goal will actually be reached in 2029?
- No, I don't think so. But compared to earlier, where there was a risk of seeing freight trains first rolling in 2040, this is a clear step forward. There is more control over the planning and the actual implementation. I am more optimistic than I have been for a long time, says Ninnemann.
The trains are central
Freight trains are more than just a part of the infrastructure - they are part of the very idea behind the Femern Belt project. The connection is intended as a shortcut for green transport and aims to shift freight from road to rail, ease pressure on motorways, and reduce CO2 emissions.
But without a usable connection over the Fehmarn Sound, the trains cannot proceed from Fehmarn onto the German network.
This worsens the climate balance and dilutes the political promise of a modern, green transport corridor between Scandinavia and Europe.
- It is a huge project, and of course, delays will occur along the way. In such a process, the parts constantly affect each other. If one thing is delayed, something else might need to be sped up. It seems that the Danes have been good at thinking this way - and it looks like the Germans are now also starting to adjust to it. It's just a shame that it didn't happen five years ago, says Jan Ninnemann, who emphasises that it's not about money, but about logistics and planning.
Doesn't believe in the German timeline
On the Danish side, they are pleased that the German side has now come up with a plan for how to achieve the goal with train traffic.
- But they won't be ready by 2029, says Stig Rømer Winter, director of Femern Belt Development, a public development organisation working to create growth and cooperation in the region around the Fehmarn Belt connection.
The German timeline is too optimistic and will slip. And it will happen very quickly, assesses the director of Femern Belt Development.
- It could happen as soon as in a month, when there are hearings. Such things should be taken seriously and included in planning, says Stig Rømer Winter, who first believes that freight trains will run under Femernsund in 2032 or 2033.
- They can't make it by 2029, and I think they know that themselves.
