The schedule for the Fehmarn Belt project is crumbling. On paper, the target is still 2029, but no tunnel element has yet been submerged, and the pace must almost double to meet the target. The vessels Ivy 1 and Ivy 2 still lack approval, the weather windows at sea are short, and Natura 2000 regulations impose further limits on the work. Nevertheless, the developer has not yet announced anything about a revised schedule. The goal of connecting Denmark and Germany is still set for 2029.
According to senior researcher Kim Haugbølle, senior researcher at the Department of the Built Environment, Aalborg University, this is not surprising.
- It is completely fair that they have not announced anything yet. Right now, they need to see whether there will be a major revision or a minor revision of the schedule. It is clearly what they are hesitating between. But before they have submerged some tunnel elements to the seabed, they do not know where they stand. Furthermore, there is a political background that needs to be informed first.
Politics and technology
It may well be that it is best not to rush if you cannot get the revenues before you are finished on the German side.
Senior Researcher Kim Haugbølle
Waiting to make an announcement is therefore not only about technology but also about politics. Only when the first elements have been tested will it be possible to assess how much the schedule needs to be rewritten.
The German side also plays a role. The entire railway connection depends on a new tunnel under the Fehmarn Sound, which at the earliest can be completed in 2032. While on the Danish side they have worked intensely to get train connections and the Storstrøm Bridge ready, they have been less effective in Germany.
Here, Kim Haugbølle points to the logic of waiting:
- Why should they hurry if there are problems on the German side anyway, and there won't be any trains running for another six to seven years?
What should be done?
Regardless, time is costly. Every month without progress increases construction costs because staffing, ships, and contracts need to be extended. At the same time, it takes longer before the revenues can start to come in.
- A delay will affect both income and expenses. It will increase construction costs. And on the income side, it will take longer before money starts coming in.
This puts the project in a dilemma. Should they push the pace to be ready earlier - or accept a major delay that is politically difficult to explain?
- Right now, they are certainly in a dilemma where they can either hurry and force things to be finished early or announce a larger delay and take the political hits that will come. It may well be that it is best not to rush if you can't get the revenues until you are finished on the German side.
