When the top negotiators from the Confederation of Danish Industry and the Danish labor movement negotiate wages and working conditions in the coming weeks, it could end up being an expensive affair for local businesses.
The collective agreements in the industrial sector, which are the first to be negotiated, work in such a way that there is a central wage component negotiated in Copenhagen. And then a local negotiation at each company. So even if you can hit the brakes locally, it will be important for companies in Lolland-Falster what they negotiate in DI's premises at City Hall Square in Copenhagen.
The recent collective agreement negotiations came on top of a sharp inflation and thus a real wage decline for many, and now there is a setup for a real wage increase. These are the signals coming from the labor movement, economists, and experts. Here, they dream of large wage increases.
OK25 Timeline
OK25 Timeline
January 2025
Negotiations begin. On January 6 at 11 a.m., the parties meet in the industrial sector for the first round of negotiations. Dansk Industri represents the employers, while CO-industri represents the trade unions. In the following weeks, negotiations in other industries will also commence.
February 2025
If everything goes as planned, the parties are expected to reach several agreements on new collective agreements, known as settlements, during February. The industrial sector typically concludes first, setting the tone for other agreements. This is often referred to as the "breakthrough settlement."
March 2025
All agreements are consolidated into one unified package. If there are unresolved disputes in certain areas, the Conciliation Board will propose a resolution. The complete package, known as the "Conciliation Proposal," will then be put to a vote among workers and employers.
April 2025
The results of the vote are revealed. If a majority of both workers and employers vote 'yes,' the new collective agreements will take effect. If one side votes 'no,' a conflict may arise, leading to strikes by workers or lockouts by employers.
But seen from the South Sea Islands, it doesn't look quite so rosy. Jakob Søndergaard Nielsen is the CEO of Metalcolour, which works with surface treatment of metals, and the chairman of DI Lolland-Falster. With the director's hat on, he hopes it won't be too expensive for his company.
- There is great uncertainty about what 2025 will look like. The situation in Germany looks uncertain. And possible punitive tariffs on exports to the USA also loom on the horizon, and that could hit us hard. I am quite sure that our employees have received a boost in the period that has passed, says Jakob Søndergaard Nielsen, referring to the local part of the latest agreement.
3F in Guldborgsund naturally wants higher wages for their members in, among other things, the industry. But it must be done in moderation.
- There are companies down here that will not be able to afford large wage increases, and it can indeed become pressured. But there are also others that can easily handle it, says Niels Henriksen, chairman of 3F Guldborgsund.
He has been involved in negotiating many agreements and says regarding the fears about exports:
- You never know what will happen and how things will develop. I have heard the experts say that there is room for good wage increases, but we must be honest with each other and say that not everyone here can keep up.
Femern pressures
In the construction of the Femern connection, a new agreement was made before Christmas, which applies to the entire 2025. The agreement ensures wage increases of up to 5.15 percent. And such an agreement contributes to putting pressure on wages throughout the area. Immediately good if you are in construction, but bad for business in general, says Jakob Søndergaard Nielsen.
- The large construction projects put pressure on the local business sector's wages. We can't keep up with that, says Jakob Søndergaard Nielsen.
That part is not recognized by Niels Henriksen from 3F. Because it's mostly foreigners working on the large construction projects.
- On the other hand, we don't have to go far north before Novo Nordisk in Kalundborg starts attracting people. Because they pay such high wages.
The negotiations in the industrial sector are expected to be concluded by February. After that, it is expected that the transport sector, construction, and other smaller agreements will fall into place. Finally, the agreements must be voted on by the members of the various unions.
