Activity in the construction industry as a whole is expected to decline in 2023 and 2024. The decline in activity comes after a period when activity in the industry has been extraordinarily high. This is what DI Byggeri writes in its forecast for the coming year.
The building industry holds up
It is construction in particular that will hold up in 2023 and 2024. In 2023, the fall in activity is expected to lead to a fall in construction employment in Denmark of approximately five percent, corresponding to almost 10,000 employed. DI Byggeri expects that employment in construction will fall by a further 6,000 people in 2024.
Green change is taking off
In the construction market, however, it is expected that the supply of water and wastewater, energy, and digital infrastructure will increase activity. Among other things, due to the green transition, it is expected that more investments will be made in the coming years. The government’s desire to roll out district heating to more households will also create a lot of activity in 2023 and towards 2030.
Slightly increasing track facilities
In the railway area, activity is slightly increasing. With the opening of Metro Cityringen and Nordhavnsmetro, activity also falls for metro construction. However, there is still a lot of activity from the construction of the Sydhavnsmetroen. Activity within the light rail is also increasing where construction is underway in Ring 3 near Copenhagen.
The infrastructure plan allocates 14,6 billion euros
The broad political agreement on Infrastructure Plan 2035, where it was agreed to spend approximately 14,6 billion on investments in the infrastructure over 15 years. According to the agreement, approximately 7 billion is set aside for the road area, 6 billion for the railway area, and around 1,2 billion for other infrastructure projects. Despite high interest rates and price increases for materials, the expected increase in road investments is maintained. Thus, it is not expected that the construction industry will be affected in the same way as the new construction and renovation market.
Public investment falls in 2023
The downward trend is characterized by the fact that the framework for public construction and construction investments will fall significantly in 2023. At the same time, there is some uncertainty about the timing of some of the large construction projects. There is also uncertainty about how much district heating rollout will take up.
Overall, DI Byggeri expects activity within the construction area to increase by 14 percent in 2022, followed by an increase of approximately one percent. in 2023 and increase further by four percent in 2024.
