Denmark can achieve an economic gain of up to 55 billion kroner if all the country's gas boilers are replaced with electric-based heating. This is shown in a new report from Deloitte Economics, prepared for the energy company Andel.
The analysis shows that a complete phase-out of gas boilers in private homes by 2035 will not only reduce CO₂ emissions but also provide a total economic gain of between 49.5 and 55.7 billion kroner. This includes lower energy costs, less air pollution, and increased property values as a result of energy improvements. If the phase-out is accelerated compared to the current pace of the Danish Energy Agency, the additional gain is estimated at 6.4 billion kroner.
The gain is mainly due to the higher efficiency of electric-based solutions. According to Deloitte, heat pumps are three to four times more energy-efficient than gas boilers, resulting in significantly lower operating costs for households. At the same time, the transition to electricity will reduce the need for biogas, which can instead be used in industry, where alternatives are fewer and more expensive.
Large regional differences
The report shows that Denmark is far from reaching its goal. In 2023, 13 percent of Danish homes were still heated with natural gas, equivalent to about 350,000 households. The regional differences are significant: in Næstved, 28 percent of the housing area is still heated with gas, in Faxe 27 percent, in Slagelse 25 percent, and in Sorø as much as 33 percent. In Vordingborg, the share is 11 percent, while Lolland and Guldborgsund are already completely without gas boilers.
According to Deloitte, the differences are mainly due to district heating being well developed in some municipalities, while other areas rely on individual solutions. Here, heat pumps would be the obvious alternative, and the analysis assesses that electrification through heat pumps is typically more economically advantageous for society than district heating, unless the connection to district heating reaches a very high level.
Andel: Can cause backlog
In addition to the economic benefits, Deloitte points out that phasing out gas will also strengthen Denmark's energy security by reducing dependence on imported gas and lowering the risk of price fluctuations.
The report concludes that Denmark has great potential in faster electrification of home heating. Even in a scenario with a fully green gas network, electricity is still considered the cheapest choice - both for society and for individual homeowners.
At Andel, which commissioned the analysis, the results are seen as a clear argument for accelerating the green transition.
- Every day without a decision means more new gas boilers, and this creates an unnecessary backlog in the green transition, says communications director Rikke Trikker.
She calls for a political decision on an end date for the sale of gas boilers and targeted support for homeowners who cannot finance the transition to heat pumps themselves.
