The mood in the Schleswig-Holstein business community has brightened over the autumn, but there is still a long way to go to real optimism. This is shown by the latest economic report from IHK Schleswig-Holstein for the fourth quarter of 2025.
The economic climate index rises from 86.4 to 95.4 points. This is a significant improvement compared to the third quarter, but the level remains well below the long-term average of 106.4 points. In other words, companies see more positive signals but are not talking about a real upturn.
More see improvements
27 percent of companies now assess their current situation as good. This is a clear improvement from 18 percent in the previous quarter. At the same time, the proportion describing the situation as poor falls slightly to 25 percent.
Expectations for the coming year have also become less bleak. 17 percent expect improvements over the next twelve months, while 27 percent expect deteriorations. In the third quarter, 31 percent feared a downturn.
Export companies are among those seeing the most progress. 36 percent expect rising exports, compared to 25 percent in the third quarter. Only 20 percent now expect falling exports.
Investments and jobs remain steady
Despite the slightly better outlook, companies remain hesitant to expand capacity. 65 percent expect unchanged employment in the coming year. 25 percent anticipate fewer employees, while only 11 percent plan to hire more.
On the investment side, the picture is similarly subdued. 27 percent will increase investments in the coming year, while 31 percent plan to cut back. Thus, there are still more who will reduce investments than those who will increase them.
According to IHK, the caution is partly due to the economic-political framework conditions and the continued high cost pressure.
Significant differences between sectors
The industry reports an improved business situation and better expectations, but order intake remains weak.
The construction sector is more pessimistic about the future, with both expectations and investment plans marked by restraint.
The retail sector is in a particularly difficult situation. The industry describes the current situation as precarious and remains predominantly pessimistic in its expectations.
Transport and logistics assess the current situation as poor and have limited confidence in a quick improvement. Conversely, other service industries report a good current situation, though with cautious plans for the future.
Politics and costs are the biggest risks
The economic-political framework conditions are still considered the biggest risk for businesses. 63 percent point to this as a central challenge.
59 percent cite high labour costs as a significant risk, and 42 percent highlight energy and raw material prices. 50 percent still see a lack of qualified labour as a problem, although this risk is slightly less significant than before.
Demand in the domestic market also causes concern. 53 percent see domestic demand as a risk, while only 14 percent point to foreign demand.
The retail sector, in particular, feels the weak consumer desire. Here, 74 percent assess domestic demand as a business risk.
Overall, the report points to an economy that has moved away from the worst emotional low point but still finds itself in a fragile balance.
