When the international long-distance train between Copenhagen and Hamburg one day begins to run under the Fehmarn Belt, it will not only be a matter of transport. It will also be a matter of business, prestige, and location. For where the train stops between the two capitals can have real significance for which areas become more closely connected to Germany - and which do not.
Behind the scenes, there is great interest. Six cities have been assessed in a new analysis, which Region Zealand and the 17 municipalities in KKR Zealand are behind. The report recommends Næstved and Nykøbing as the two stops. But no decision has been made. It must first be worked on politically.
The analysis assesses the stations based on three considerations: accessibility, labour market, and passenger potential. And that is precisely why it is interesting. For it places business at the centre and asks which cities actually have companies and industries that can use the connection for something.
From the business perspective, this is not just an infrastructure exercise. It is a competition between business areas to become the link between Denmark and Northern Germany.
Access to labour: A German opportunity
Part of the analysis's method deals with commuting time. It is based on the assumption that the train will probably stop in Oldenburg 37 kilometres into Germany - and then assesses how far one can reach from that point if one is to commute to a job in Region Zealand.
What does the report show?
The report is commissioned by Region Zealand and KKR Zealand and assesses where the international long-distance train to Germany should stop. Six stations are examined with a focus on business, labour market, and passenger base.
The analysis is conducted by SYSTRA. They are experts in railways and also advise Femern A/S on the railway part of the tunnel project.
Reference is made to studies showing that up to 90 minutes of daily commuting each way is accepted in high-paying jobs. This sets a clear focus: If the connection is to have an effect on the business community, there must be both companies and a real recruitment need near the station.
Nykøbing: Industry and potential close to the tunnel
Nykøbing is the largest town on Lolland-Falster and is only 45 kilometres from the tunnel portal. The town has a clear business focal point - with the Nordic Sugars factory as one of the largest workplaces in the area. Director Jannik Olejas has previously stated to FemernBusiness that the company will make its influence felt if asked.
The analysis places Nykøbing as one of the most obvious stops. The combination of geographical proximity, business community, and existing commuting gives the town a special position. The connection to Germany is not only technically possible but can be linked to actual needs of employers in the area. If a winner is to be crowned, it is Nykøbing.
Vordingborg: Location is not everything
Vordingborg performs evenly in the analysis - and therefore quickly slips out of the top field. This is also true when viewed through business lenses. The town does not have a large business area that would directly benefit from German connections. There is no heavy production, and the international contact surface is limited.
At the same time, the town is not close enough to the Fehmarn corridor for the commuting potential from Germany to be realistic. And it is not large enough to attract a sufficient number of business travellers. This does not mean that the town is uninteresting. But in the analysis's view, Vordingborg is neither large enough, close enough to Germany, nor commercially significant enough to be considered.
Rødby: Close to the connection - but without a hinterland
Rødby has one thing that no one else can match: The shortest distance to Germany. The travel time to Oldenburg is very short, making it in principle an obvious entry point for German labour.
However, the analysis points out the obvious gap: The station is located in open countryside, far from larger towns or business areas. There is no nearby labour market to connect the link to. Therefore, Rødby receives a low overall rating - despite its geographical advantage.
Næstved: A broad business environment and regional role
Næstved is one of the stations that performs best in the analysis - and this holds true when assessed with a focus on business. The town has both a large business area, good commuter coverage, and easy access from Germany.
Næstved is also a regional centre for construction, education, retail, and service, and increasingly has companies with German customers and connections. This makes the town relevant not just as a departure point for Danes - but also as an arrival point for Germans.
Næstved is thus a classic compromise station: Large enough, central enough, and commercially anchored. It may lack a sharp profile, but it has broad coverage.
Ringsted: Logistics and transit - but not southern enough
Ringsted is a natural hub in the Danish railway network. It is located in the middle of Zealand, has good logistics, and many connections. But like Køge Nord, the station is considered to be too far from the Fehmarn connection.
There are no strong commercial ties to the south, and therefore the station's location becomes less relevant when it comes to connecting Danish companies to a new labour market in Northern Germany. The opportunity for Ringsted is that it is so centrally and uniquely located in relation to the rest of the railway network that Næstved could be excluded on that basis.
Køge Nord: North-facing and capital-oriented
Køge Nord is new and efficient. It serves a large area with quick access to the capital, and the station is connected to both the S-train and high-speed rail. But the connection to the Fehmarn corridor is weak.
The station is considered to have less significance in relation to the labour market to the south. The connection to Germany is long, and there is no nearby industrial environment with a need for German labour. Køge Nord's strength lies in internal Zealand commuting - not in an international direction.
The connection to Germany is less direct, but the local and regional business structure means that mobility itself can make a difference - both for recruitment and for cross-border collaboration.
Business, recruitment and positioning
When reading the analysis from a business perspective, one thing becomes clear: It's not just about tracks. It's about where the connections can actually be useful.
Nykøbing is close to the connection and has a labour market that can use it. Næstved has volume and pull in the middle of the region. Rødby has the connection but lacks the hinterland. And Vordingborg doesn't score enough points to place itself at the forefront.
It's about business - and about who will be connected to the next chapter in the Danish-German connection.
